ICC World Cup: One of the biggest sporting event of this year

अब तो अगले दो महीने तक सारा काम दाम बंद करके cricket देखेगे :)

Yes the world cup is almost here. All the preparations and the team building efforts will show their results over the next two months. It is one of the biggest sporting event for the Indian Subcontinent. This is one event where the subcontinent teams can defeat the best in the world. This is the most open world cup ever - There I too said it. But frankly, every world cup has it's own surprises except the first two editions which West Indian won and last two editions which Australia won. So I will add "of the recent times. Now, if you have guesses where I am going.

Yes, the similarity doesn't end with one team domination and two world cup wins. I believe, this world cup will signal the end of the Australian domination over the world. They are at the same stage as WI in 1983. A whole generation of great players have retired or will retire soon. I don't expect many of the current team members to be there in the next edition of the cup. So, we will enter a time of uncertainty with no dominating team before some other country takes on the mantle.

Lets come back to this world cup. The recent Australia losses in CB Trophy and NZ were result of a tiring long season and depleted side. No body can write off the Aus in the ICC World Cup 2007, but they don't feel as invincible. Any of the top eight teams can win this world cup. This is because the difference between various teams is very little and most teams are ailing with fitness or form issues.

Let me first put my views on most of the world cup matches in West Indies. Most battles will be played in the middle overs. That means the team paces the middle overs well and doesn't let the other team score as freely in middle overs will win. It also means having a varied attacks with a lot of slow bowling options.

Here is my take at the chances of the various teams.

1> Australia: You can mock them; you can ridicule them; but you can not ignore them. They will come back hard. Australia along with South Africa is the favorite to win the world cup. But, Australian power is on wane. In fact, I won;t be surprised if the don't qualify for semis. They have fitness issues, their form is currently low and they don't have a good varied attack. In fact, I believe SA has more chances of winning this world cup than Australia. Key players for them will be Gilchrist (Opening 10-20 overs), Ponting(15-40) and Hussey (Closer). Seymond will contribute, but his fitness is still not assured. Their current bowling attack is at best good and mostly average. McGrath is like a lone ranger. Also, they don't have many slow bowling options one of the key factors success factors for this world cup.

2> South Africa: In my books, this is the team that is most likely to win the world cup. They have the best bowling attack of any team, huge depth of batting with lots of all rounders and the fittest and the best fielding side in the world. Shaun Pollock is at his peak bowling form. And they might have got the top ranking by some help from luck, but they have been at the Australia toe for so long waiting for them to blink. The only short coming for them is that they don't have a variety in bowling (slow bowling ?) and Choker tag. I think bowling variety is overstated and ditto for Choker tag.

3> India: After Aus an SA, I rate India as one of the next best team to have a chance of qualify for quarters. They seem much more disciplined than anytime in recent years. I am aware of their bad form in the last one year, but I this year they have been on the mend. Ganguly has come back strong giving the team a good opener. Tendulkar is playing well. Dhoni has matured into the role of a closer. Bowling attach has a problem of excess - which is always good. Key concerns Sehwag and Pathan. If these two players perform well in the world cup, I think India can go all the way. I would rather have Pathan back to his form for two reasons - If Pathan can act as the third medium pacer, we will just need two other medium pacer and Harbhajan. That means there will be depth in the batting.

4> Sri Lanka: World Cup is all about momentum and had it not been for the recent momentum, SL would have been ahead of India in my ranking. They have one of the best "varied" attack in the world. Good batting side, but their recent form has been off. The way this world cup is structured, They can very easily gain that momentum in the group stages. I think they will qualify for the semis and after that it is just 2 more games that will decide the ultimate winners.

5& 6> New Zealand and West Indies form the other two top eight teams most likely to take the slot of the above four teams. New Zealand is on a high after defeating a depleted Australia and West Indies have a home team advantage.

7&8> Pakistan and England round up the top eight teams. These two teams along with the West Indies will be the teams which may miss the super eight. Pakistan without Shoaib and Asif have a toothless bowling attack. They are also missing some key batsmen, but the person they will miss the most id Razzak. He is an intelligent cricketer, great closer and provides a good balance to the team as an all rounder. England may have won the CB trophy, but they are a team in a building phase.

9-16> Associate members round up the rest of the teams. I believe at least one of them will reach the Super 8 and these members will win at least 2-3 matches against the top eight teams. Test playing members be on lookout for Bangladesh, Kenya and Zimbabwe.

Well this is my take on ICC WORLD CUP 2007. Have fun watching the games.